The 10-year yield has fallen significantly since last week. But is this a trend reversal or just normal volatility on the way up?

If you look at the macro situation:
~ The Federal Reserve is keeping rates high.
~ The US Treasury is about to issue bonds worth $816 billion.

This is not an environment that requires lower rates.

Plus we have seen similar corrections 3 or 4 times since 2022. At the same time, rates dropped from less than 2% to 5%.

So it may be too early to talk about a trend reversal.

Except... Except when the bond market expects a recession...

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